Meadville Tribune

November 25, 2013

Experts predict mild winter for region

By Konstantine Fekos
Meadville Tribune

MEADVILLE — Though snow has already fallen in the region, meteorologists are predicting slightly warmer weather in northwest Pennsylvania this winter season.

State and national weather predictions are generally placing the nation on a warmer track through the otherwise colder months, and Pennsylvania could end up a few degrees above its average as well.

“It’s not a huge deviation, but it’s not typical either,” said Dan Pydynowski, senior meteorologist for AccuWeather in central Pennsylvania. “As far as an overall outlook, we predict temperatures will be milder than usual, maybe by one or two degrees.”

While Crawford and surrounding counties have seen colder temperatures and snowfall as early as October and November in the past, Pydynowski says the cold air flow is a bit more brief in nature this season, coming through in short snaps.

“Mid-winter, around January, is typically the coldest with afternoon highs of about 32 degrees and lows in the upper teens,” he said. “There’s still a lot of variability, but we’re looking to have more days with above-average temperatures than below.”

Come the start of winter, however, the region is expected to see snowfall and temperatures close to those of 2012.

The 2014 Old Farmer’s Almanac, which groups northwest Pennsylvania on a southwestern regional slope with Buffalo, N.Y., and Cleveland, predicts local areas will generally be mild and wet as opposed to the remainder of the state being drier and colder.

Below-average snowfall is also predicted, with the snowiest periods anticipated for late December and January, according to the Almanac.

“There’s little opportunity for snow right now, but the bulk of snowfall comes between December and February anyhow,” Pydynowski said. “We might be in the same boat as last year.”

Pydynowski reported about 40 inches of snowfall around the Great Lakes region in 2012, about 10 or 15 inches below average.

The Almanac, boasting at least a 94-percent accuracy rating in the 2012-13 winter season, predicts possible snow showers on and off from late November into early March with temperatures averaging mostly around the upper 20s and lower 30s.



Konstantine Fekos can be reached at 724-6370 or by email at kfekos@meadvilletribune.com.