Published April 17, 2008 10:32 am -
AP-Yahoo poll shows McCain winning back unhappy Republicans
WASHINGTON (AP) — Republicans are no longer underdogs in the race for the White House. To pull that off, John McCain has attracted disgruntled GOP voters, independents and even some moderate Democrats who shunned his party last fall.
Partly thanks to an increasingly likable image, the Republican presidential candidate has pulled even with the two Democrats still brawling for their party’s nomination, according to an Associated Press-Yahoo news poll released Thursday. Just five months ago — before either party had winnowed its field — the survey showed people preferred sending an unnamed Democrat over a Republican to the White House by 13 percentage points.
Of those who have moved toward McCain, about two-thirds voted for President Bush in 2004 but are now unhappy with him, including many independents who lean Republican. The remaining one-third usually support Democrats but like McCain anyway.
Also helping the Arizona senator close the gap: Peoples’ opinions of Hillary Rodham Clinton have soured slightly, while their views of Barack Obama have improved though less impressively than McCain’s.
The survey suggests that those switching to McCain are largely attuned to his personal qualities and McCain may be benefiting as the two Democrats snipe at each other during their prolonged nomination fight.
David Mason of Richmond, Va., is typical of the voters McCain has gained since last November, when the 46-year-old personal trainer was undecided. Mason calls himself an independent and voted in 2004 for President Bush, whom he considers a strong leader but a disappointment due to the “no-win situation” in Iraq.
“It’s not that I’m that much in favor of McCain, it’s the other two are turning me off,” Mason said of Clinton and Obama, the senators from New York and Illinois, in explaining his move toward McCain. As for the Republican’s experiences as a Vietnam War prisoner and in the Senate, Mason said, “All he’s been through is an asset.”
By tracking the same group of roughly 2,000 people throughout the campaign, the AP-Yahoo poll can gauge how individual views are evolving. What’s clear is that some Republican-leaning voters who backed Bush in 2004 but lost enthusiasm for him are returning to the GOP fold — along with a smaller but significant number of Democrats who have come to dislike their party’s two contenders.
The findings of the survey, conducted by Knowledge Networks, provide a preview of one of this fall’s battlegrounds. Though some unhappy Republicans will doubtless stay with McCain, both groups are teeming with centrist swing voters who will be targeted by both parties.
The poll shows that McCain’s appeal has grown since November by more than the Democrats’ has dwindled. McCain gets about 10 percentage points more now than a generic Republican candidate got last fall; Obama and Clinton get about 5 points less than a nameless Democrat got then.
Underlining McCain’s burgeoning popularity, in November about four in 10 considered McCain likeable, decisive, strong and honest while about half do now. Obama is seen as more likeable and stronger now but his numbers for honesty and decisiveness have remained flat, while Clinton’s scores for likeability and honesty have dropped slightly.
“You can’t trust Hillary and Obama’s too young,” said Pauline Holsinger, 60, a janitorial worker in Pensacola, Fla., now backing McCain who preferred an unnamed Democrat last fall. “I like him better, he’s more knowledgeable about the war” in Iraq.
Voters at this stage in a campaign commonly focus more on candidates’ personal qualities. That usually changes as the general election approaches and they pay more attention to issues and partisan loyalty — meaning that McCain’s prospects could fade at a time when the public is deeply unhappy with the war, the staggering economy and Bush.
For now, more than one in 10 who weren’t backing the unnamed Republican candidate in last November’s survey are supporting McCain, a shift partly offset by a smaller number of former undecideds now embracing Obama or Clinton. Of those now backing McCain, about one-third did not support the generic GOP candidate last November.
Among the unhappy Bush supporters whom McCain has lured back to his campaign, about half say they are conservative, yet their views on issues are more moderate than many in the party, with some opposing the war in Iraq. They have favorable but not intensely enthusiastic views of McCain — for example, two-thirds find him likeable while far fewer find him compassionate or refreshing.